高速公路高边坡施工安全总体风险评估方法

Method for general risk assessment of expressway high slope in construction safety

为实现高速公路高边坡施工安全风险分级管理,有效规避施工安全事故,提出高边坡施工安全总体风险评估方法。首先根据高边坡施工安全管理失误传递路径确定施工安全风险传递路径,开展风险源辨识分析,构建高边坡总体风险评估指标体系,建立总体风险评估模型。基于蒙特卡洛随机抽样技术,运用K-S检验方法对指标权重总体分布进行有效检验,在给定置信区间下划分总体风险等级。结合试点工程修正风险等级阈值,并通过湖北省某高速公路高边坡实例予以验证。研究结果表明,在掌握实际高边坡工程现场数据的情况下,用该方法能获得较好的风险评估结果。

In order to achieve hierarchical management of expressway high slope construction safety risk and effectively avoid construction accidents, a method for general risk assessment of high slope in construction safety was worked out. Firstly, through the transfer path for construction safety management defect, the risk transfer path of high slope was determined, which was used to identify and analyze risk factors. A risk assessment index system of general safety in high slope construction was established. A risk assessment model was built. The overall distribution of index weights was effectively tested by K - S method based on Monte-Carlo sampling technique. The risk grades were classified under the given confidence interval, which were corrected by pilot engineering practices. The method was verified by the data on a certain expressway high slope construction in Hubei province. It is shown that as long as factual data on high slope under construction were obtained, better risk assessment results can be got by using the method.