不同地震破坏情景下应急避难所责任区评价研究——以北京市中心城区为例

Assessment of allocation of residents to emergency shelters under different earthquake damage scenarios-- Case study on central area of Beijing

为定量研究地震应急避难场所责任区的划定并进行适宜性评价分析,以最小化任一街道(乡镇)的避难需求人口到避难所的最大距离为目标,以避难所容量、避难需求人口和街道(乡镇)完整性为约束条件,建立灾害避难所责任区评价模型。用加权Voronoi算法求解该模型。以北京市中心城区的灾害避难所为例,模拟不同地震破坏情景下的避难需求人口,得到各个灾害避难所的最佳避难需求人口责任区和不同情景下的人口配置缺口。实例分析表明:目前北京市中心城区的避难所容量均不能满足3种地震情景避难人口的需求;覆盖范围明显增加的避难所负责的避难需求人口相对较多,其容量相对不足。

In order to quantitatively assess allocation of residents to earthquake disaster shelters, a model based on weighted Voronoi diagram was built. The objective of the model is to minimize the maximum of evacuation distance from any township center to the potential shelter, and the shelter capacity, number of potential evacuee and subdistriet （township） integrity were taken as the constraints on the model. With the case study on central area of Beijing, the number of potential evacuees was first estimated under different earthquake damage scenarios, and then the optimal allocation of residents to shelters was obtained, finally the population configuration gap for each shelter was calculated. The result shows that shelter capacities of the central area of Beijing cannot meet the demand for three earthquake damage scenario, and that shelters with an increased covering area should serve more population but they generally lack a sufficiently high capacity.