摘要
基于贝叶斯模型法的计算框架,应用概率论和统计学的方法针对多个单一子流域水文模型进行分析处理,得到了较为精确的预报结果。该方法与以往单一预报模拟方法相比,具有综合、完整的优点,基于贝叶斯模型平均法的水文模型组合预报可以给出精度较高的预报模拟结果。
Based on the calculation framework of Bayesian model , this study conducts analyses and processing of several single sub -basin hydrological models applying probability theory and statistical methods, obtaining more accurate forecasting results.This method has advantages of comprehensive and complete compared to previous simulation of a single forecast , combined with Bayesian model av-eraging method , the synthetic forecasting using hydrological models can produce simulations and pre-dictions of high accuracy.
出处
《水利科技与经济》
2014年第12期62-64,67,共4页
Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy
关键词
贝叶斯模型平均
不确定性
组合预报
bayesian model averaging method
uncertainty
combined forecast
