农业现代化、城镇化与经济发展的互动关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证

Interaction among Agricultural Modernization, Urbanization and Economic Development——Based on Case of VAR Mode

农业现代化、城镇化和经济增长是现代社会发展进步的重要标志,三者统筹协调发展是社会高效发展的前提条件。在研究分析三者之间内在关系机理的基础上,借助于1991-2010年的相关数据,应用统计分析和VAR模型论证了它们之间的相互关系。研究表明,农业现代化和城镇化具有明显的互相拉动作用,农业现代化对城镇化具有向上拉升作用,城镇化则对农业现代化具有向下拉动作用,"四化"同步发展战略是提升发展质量和实现经济社会均衡发展的必由之路。

Agricultural modernization, urbanization and economic growth are important symbols of modern social development; their co-ordination development is a prerequisite for efficient development of society. Based on their intrinsic relationship and relevant data from 1991 to 2010, the work applied statistical analysis and VAR model to verify their relationship. Research showed agricultural modernization and urbanization play significant roles in mutual improvement—agricultural modernization plays pulling-up role for urbanization, which plays pulling-down role for agricultural modernization. Simultaneous development of ＂Four modernizations＂ is the only way to improve the quality and achieve balanced economic and social development.