基于2013年8月中国中东部地区持续高温的延伸期稳定分量提取及改进研究

Stable components in extended-range forecasting during the continuous high temperature event in August 2013over the mid-eastern China

基于2013年8月中国中东部地区持续高温及其减弱过程,利用美国国家环境预报中心/美国国家大气研究中心逐日平均的500 h Pa高度场、风场再分析资料和美国国家海洋和大气管理局的海温重建扩展资料进行分析,通过前期海温强迫相似年的选取方法以及带通滤波和经验正交函数分解等方法提取出10—30 d的稳定分量,并通过对稳定分量的诊断分析探究了这次持续高温及其减弱过程的维持机制.研究发现:通过选取与个例前期海温强迫最相似的30年来代替常规的气候态30年(1981—2010年),所提取的气候态稳定分量所占的比重变化不大,稍有减弱,而异常型稳定分量占的比重显著性提高,且其所刻画的影响异常事件的天气系统强度及稳定性明显提高,能够更加清晰地显示延伸期天气过程的维持机制.这表明在提取稳定分量时考虑前期的海温强迫作用是非常有必要的.同时,通过对延伸期稳定分量的分析,表明此次持续高温及减退过程主要受到北极涛动、亚洲大陆中高纬纬向环流形势和西太平洋副热带高压(西太副高)强度、位置的共同影响.

Based on the continuous high temperature process over the mid-eastern China in August 2013, using the NCEP/NCAR （United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Re- search） daily average of 500 hPa height field, the wind field reanalysis data, and the NOAA （National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration） reconstruction sea surface temperature （SST） data, through the selection method similar to the early adoption of SST forcing, band-pass filtering and empirical orthogonal function decomposition method to extract the 10-30 days of stable components, and through a stable component of diagnostic analysis, we investigate the mechanisms for sustaining and reducing high temperature process. Results show that by selecting and using the case that is the most similar to a pre-SST forcing 30-year climatology instead of the normal 30-year climatology （1981-2010）, the steady-state component extracted climate proportion is reduced, and the proportion of anomalously stable com- ponents is significantly enhanced and the described influence strength and stability are improved significantly, which can more clearly show the extended maintenance mechanism of weather processes. It suggests that early consideration SST forcing in the extraction component is very necessary. Meanwhile, the analysis of extension of stable components shows that the process of maintaining and reducing high temperature is mainly caused by the combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation, continental high latitudes zonal circulation situation in Asia and the western Pacific subtropical high intensity and location.