对想定北京和广州发生输入性埃博拉疫情的计算实验研究

Computational Experiments on Imported Ebola Outbreaks in Beijing and Guangzhou

本次西非埃博拉疫情引起了世界范围内的高度重视,各国纷纷开展风险评估研究。我们采用仓室模型和基于Agent模型,对北京市和广州市想定发生输入性埃博拉疫情的后续疫情发展态势开展计算实验研究,对影响疫情发展的主要因素进行分析。结果显示,在严格执行埃博拉防控预案、尽快隔离传染性病例的情况下,埃博拉在两地暴发的风险很小。同时,以数据为驱动的计算流行病学也对公共卫生应急部门的基础数据准备工作提出了更高要求。

The outbreak of Ebolain western Africa has kindled worldwide concern and evaluation on imported Ebola risk. In this article, compartment model and Agent-based model were applied to Beijing and Guangzhou to project the epidemic dynamics in case of the imported Ebola truly occurs. The key factors which might dominate the epidemic dynamics were also analyzed. The result showed the risk of Ebola pandemic in Beijing and Guangzhou was very low with extremely executed prevention and control plan, standard disposal procedure and short free exposure of infectious Ebola cases. Besides, the data driven computational epidemiology has raised higher requirements to the fundamental database preparedness.