基于个体的传染病传播模型应用

Application of Individual-Based Transmission Models

西非埃博拉疫情是今年全球重大公共卫生事件,其态势发展一直是国际关注的焦点。为了研判其发展态势,计算流行病学家使用基于个体的传染病传播模型对疫情的发展进行预判,相关结论在疫情防控策略的制定中起到了重要的参考作用。本文综述了基于个体的传染病传播模型的基本原理和发展,并讨论了当前基于个体的传染病传播模型待解决的问题。

The 2014 West African Ebola epidemic has become a public health emergency of global concern. To research the epidemic, computational epidemiologist used individual-based transmission models to predict the development of Ebola epidemic, the result of which played an important role in deciding the strategies for containing the pandemic in West Africa. This article briefly described the theory and development of individual-based transmission model, and discussed some problems in this area.