模拟投票1824年在美国出现的制度前提与历史语境

Institutional Premises and Historical Context of The Straw Poll in 1824

在说明《哈里斯堡宾州人报》模拟投票的"新闻趣味解释"未尽合理的基础上试图分析两个问题:作为现代民调的先驱,模拟投票为何诞生在美国?为何又只能诞生于19世纪20年代?认为:1787年《宪法》确立了"人民同意"在宪政体制中的核心地位,为模拟投票的出现提供了制度前提,转型中的"杰克逊民主"则赋予模拟投票以具体的历史语境:投票权的扩大促使票数计量成为主要的政治资源;党团核心干部会议的瓦解刺激了政治家、记者和民意观察家们模拟投票的需要;新型政治家则力图使得模拟投票成为象征性数字符号。

This paper attempts to analyze two problems on the basis of the explanation that the expositions about news interesting of the straw poll by Harrisburg Pennsylvanian are non - perfectly reasonable ： as a pioneer of modern poll, why the straw poll was born in America？ And why could it only be born in 1820s？ This paper ar- gues that： Constitution of the United States（1787） established the core status of popular consent in American constitutional system, and it provided the institutional premises for the emergence of the straw poll. Jacksonian Democracy in transition endowed the straw poll with a specific historical context： expanding voting rights prompted the votes measurement to become a major political resource ; the collapse of the congressional caucus system spurred politicians, reporters and the public opinion observers＇ need for straw poll ; and the new - type politicians tried to make straw poll become a symbol of the numeric character.