中国耕地动态变化与占补平衡分析

Analysis of the Dynamic Change and Requisition-Compensation Balance of Cultivated Land in China

测算耕地动态转换造成的耕地质量等级变化,评估耕地动态变化对数量与质量平衡的影响。采用综合分析法、模型侧算法、实证分析法,评估耕地生产能力变化与占补平衡实施成效。研究结果表明:耕地的占补平衡仅实现了数量平衡,但因城镇建设扩张占用了优质高等耕地而新增耕地质量等级较低,因此未达到质量平衡。特别是中国依靠开发后备资源来补充耕地而不是通过土地整理来增加质量等级较高的耕地,因此新增耕地的平均自然质量等级较低。研究结论:应加大土地整理补充耕地比例,从而提高耕地平均自然质量等级,达到耕地数量与质量占补平衡。

The purpose of this paper is to assess the outcomes of dynamic change of cultivated land in terms of both quantity and quality balance. In particular, the research evaluated the effects of cultivated land conversion on average natural quality grades of cultivated land. Methods of comprehensive analysis, statistical model and empirical analysis are used to assess the effects of China＇s cultivated land balance program on potential land productivity. Results shows that the quantity balance was achieved, quality balance was not met due to both the loss of highly productive cultivated land from urban expansion and a flawed approach to adding newly cultivated land. In particular,China has typically relied on adding cultivated land by exploitation instead of consolidation, which would add land of higher productivity. Therefore, the quality of the added cultivated land has been rather poor. Conclusion is that the proportion of supplementary cultivated land by land consolidation should be increased to improve the average natural quality grades of cultivated land, aiming to maintain the quantity and quality balance of cultivated land across the country.