中国生态消费发展指数测度研究

Research on Measurement of Ecological Consumption Development Index in China

构建了涵盖消费水平适度、消费结构合理、消费方式健康、消费规模增长、消费环境和谐五个维度的生态消费发展指数评价指标体系,采用主成分分析法确定了各指标的权重,对2003-2012年中国及各省区生态消费发展指数进行了测度。然后运用空间自相关方法对我国生态消费的演化格局进行了实证分析。研究表明,全国生态消费发展指数处于1.530-4.702之间,整体呈现稳步上升的趋势。消费方式健康、消费规模增长、消费环境和谐、消费水平适度、消费结构合理对生态消费发展指数的提高具有正向作用,但贡献大小依次降低。生态消费发展指数及变动幅度在不同区域、省域之间,存在较大差异。从区域层面看,东部、中部和西部地区2003-2012年生态消费发展指数的均值依次为4.216,2.517和1.973,生态消费发展指数呈现由东部到中部再到西部逐渐递减的状态。从省级层面看,生态消费发展指数较高的省区集聚于东部地区,而生态消费发展指数较低的省区则集中于西部地区。从全局空间自相关来看,2003-2012年中国各省份生态消费发展指数的全局Moran’s I值均显著为正,表明各地的生态消费发展存在不断增强的空间集聚效应。由Moran’s I散点图分析可知,72.9%左右的省份表现为在地理空间上显著的空间正相关(高高和低低集聚分布为主),生态消费分布的"两极化"空间特征明显。根据实证结果,本文对进一步提高我国生态消费的发展状况提出了一些建议:坚持基础设施建设先行,积极践行生态消费,完善引领生态消费的政策体系,寻求生态消费区域协调发展新渠道。

This paper firstly built an ecological consumption development index evaluation system, which consists of Consumption Level Moderation （CLM）, Consumption Structure Reasonableness （CSR） , Consumption Pattern Health （CPH）, Consumption Scale Growth （CSG） and Consumption Environment Harmony （CEH）. Through adopting principal component analysis to determine the weight of the target, Chinese national and provincial ecological consumption development index have been measured from year 2003 to 2012. On the basis, the pattern of evolution for Chinese ecological consumption is empirically analyzed by applying the spatial autocorrelation method. The results show that： Firstly, Chinese ecological consumption development index is between 1. 530 and 4. 702, and has a steady increasing tendency in general. Secondly, CPH, CSG, CEH, CLM and CSR all have positive effects on the improvement of Chinese ecological consumption development index, but their contributions decrease from the first one to the last. Thirdly, there are big differences in ecological consumption development index and its amount of variation between different regions and provinces. From the regional perspective, the average level of ecological consumption development index in eastern, middle and western China are 4. 216,2. 517 and 1. 973 during year 2003 to 2012, which shows a decreasing tendency from the east to the central and the west. From the provincial perspective, provinces with high ecological consumption development index are assembled in eastern China, and on the contrary, those with low ecological consumption development index are assembled in western China. Fourthly, from the general spatial autocorrelation perspective, the degrees of general Moran＇ s I of provincial ecological consumption development index in China during year 2003 to 2012 are all positive, which demonstrates an increasing spatial agglomeration effect among Chinese regional ecological consumption. For more details, the Moran＇ s I scatter diagram shows that 72.9% of the provinces in China distinctly appear to be in positive spatial correlation in geographical space （with H-H correlation and T-T correlation）, which demonstrates that Chinese ecological consumption has an apparent ＂ polarization＂ spatial distribution characteristics. Conclusively, in terms of the outcomes of empirical analysis, some specific suggestions are put forward to further improve the ecological consumption in China： Firstly, insisting on the infrastructure construction going first. Secondly, practicing actively ecological consumption. Thirdly, improving the policy system that can guide the ecological consumption. Fourthly, seeking for new ways of the coordinated development among regions.