资源环境脱钩测度方法:“速度脱钩”还是“数量脱钩”?

Methods of Measuring Decoupling of Resource Environment:Speed Decoupling or Quantity Decoupling?

促进资源环境与经济增长的协调发展是我国经济社会发展进程中亟待解决的重大问题。正确认识资源环境与经济增长的关系是促进二者协调发展的前提和关键,脱钩作为描述资源环境与经济增长关系的重要理论及方法,仍然存在脱钩概念模糊、脱钩测度方法不统一的问题,影响了其应用效果。对此,本文首先在总结现有脱钩测度方法的基础上,将其分为"速度脱钩"和"数量脱钩"两类,其中"速度脱钩"是指同一时期内资源环境消耗速度慢于经济增长速度;"数量脱钩"是指资源环境消耗数量(或水平)随经济增长出现平稳或下降;然后,借助"环境高山"分析了脱钩测度的管控意义,指出脱钩测度不仅仅是为了回答"脱钩与否",更重要的是告诉我们资源环境与经济增长是否已经实现从"两难"到"双赢"的转变,我们是否该变资源环境的"适度管控"为"严格管控";并以脱钩测度的管控意义为标尺,从理论上分析了"速度脱钩"和"数量脱钩"的优劣;最后,以我国的城市土地扩张与经济增长为例,选择Tapio弹性系数法和Kuznets曲线模型分别代表"速度脱钩"和"数量脱钩",对理论分析结果进行了验证,结果表明"速度脱钩"可能会提前误判资源环境与经济增长已经进入"双赢区间",误导我们提前实施"严格管控",从而对区域经济增长产生不良影响,而"数量脱钩"能够更准确的反映资源环境与经济增长从"两难"到"双赢"的转化,有效指导资源环境管控策略的选择。因此,为了更好地将脱钩理论及方法应用于资源环境管控实践,以"数量脱钩"作为脱钩测度方法是更合理的选择。

To promote the harmonious development of resource environment and economic growth is a major issue to be resolved. The premise to realize it is to adequately recognize the relationship between them. As a vital approach to describe the relationship between them, the decoupling theory still has some problems such as vague definition and different measuring methods which influence its application effect. Thus, this paper firstly classifies decoupling methods into ＇ Speed Decoupling＇ and ＇ Quantity Decoupling＇ on the basis of summarizing existing methods. Therein-to, ＇ Speed Decoupling＇ means that the speed of resource environment consumption is slower than that of economic growth during the same period ; ＇ Quantity Decoupling＇ refers to that the amount （ or level） of resource environment consumption appears stable or falling along with economic growth. Secondly, in virtue of ＇ Environment Mountain＇ , this paper puts forward the control meaning of decoupling measure that is not only to indicate ＇ decouple or not＇ , but also to reveal whether resource environment and economic growth have changed from ＇ dilemma＇ to ＇ double wins＇ , whether turned the ＇ moderate control＇ of resource environment to ＇ stringent control＇. And using the control meaning of the decoupling measure as an benchmark, the advantages and disadvantages of ＇ Speed Decoupling＇ and ＇ Quantity Decoupling＇ are analyzed theoretically. Lastly, this paper verifies the results of theoretical analysis using the urban land expansion and economic growth in China as an example, and choosing Tapio Elasticity Coefficient and Kuznets Curve model representing ＇ Speed Decoupling＇ and ＇ Quantity Decoupling＇ respectively. The results show that ＇ Speed Decoupling＇ may misjudge the turning points from ＇ dilemma＇ to ＇ double wins＇ and misleads us to implement ＇ stringent control＇ in advance which will impact negatively regional economic growth, ＇ Quantity Decoupling＇ can exhibit the turning point exactly and directs the choice of control strategy efficaciously. Hence, in order to improve the practical meaning of the decoupling theory, using ＇ Quantity Decoupling＇ as decoupling measure method is a more reasonable choice.