改革开放以来北京市人口空间分布的变动特征——基于1982-2010年四次人口普查资料的分析

Study on the Trend of Population Spatial Distribution in Beijing since the Reform and Opening-up: Based on Analyzing the Data of Four Population Census from 1982 to 2010

本文使用了1982年、1990年、2000年和2010年的北京市第三次、第四次、第五次和第六次共四次人口普查资料的相关数据,综合利用人口重心研究方法和标准离差椭圆分析方法,借助于Arcgis软件分析工具,分析了北京市人口空间分布的集中和离散的变化趋势,揭示了改革开放以来北京市人口空间分布的基本演变态势。研究结论表明,近30年间,北京市人口空间分布的总体格局呈现为人口增长速度提高、人口规模总量不断膨胀的基本态势,城市功能拓展区和城市发展新区的人口增长速度领先,全市人口重心位于城市中心区的北部位置,位移距离变化较小,基本保持稳定;北京全市域人口密度由内到外呈现较为显著的阶梯状递减特征,中心城区人口密度与近郊区人口密度梯度差异逐渐变小,近郊区与远郊区的人口密度的梯度差异逐渐扩大,以中心城区和近郊区分布为主的首都功能核心区和城市功能拓展区人口集聚趋势依然明显,反映了北京市人口空间分布结构具有较强的稳定性特点;北京市人口标准离差椭圆长短轴均呈缩短趋势,长短轴之比亦呈变小趋势,反映了在北京市人口规模整体扩张的基本态势上,北京市人口空间分布呈现出更强烈的向心极化趋势和同心圆集聚趋势。总之,北京市仍然表现为人口增量型的城市化发展阶段,相对稳定的人口重心变化和较小的标准离差椭圆变化表明了北京市人口增加趋势呈现出城市化中后期趋于相对稳定的发展阶段,质量型城市化将进一步成为北京市未来城镇化过程中的主要挑战。

Based on data from the third, fourth, fifth and sixth population census in 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010 respectively, the research analyses the accumulative and diffused changes of population spatial distribution in Beijing so as to disclose the evolution laws of population spatial distribution in Beijing since the reform and opening-up by using methods of population gravity center and population standard deviation ellipse and tools of Arcgis software. The research conclusion shows below. During nearly 30 years, the basic trend is that Beijing＇ s population spatial distribution pattern with the traits as population growth rate raising and population expansion. The growth rate in urban function development area and urban new development area is the highest. The population gravity center is in the north of urban core area of Beijing and keeps relatively stable with little displacement. The population density in Beijing has obvious ladder decrease from the inside out. The difference of population density between inner suburb and outer suburb widens gradually while that between urban center area and inner suburb reduces gradually. The population concentration tendency is distinct in capital function core area and urban function development area, which both locate in the urban core area and inner suburb. The obvious ladder difference reflects the population spatial distribution structure has the relative stability characteristics in the 30 years. The length of both long and short axes gradually shortens, so is the ratio of the long axis and the short axis. With the population expansion in Beijing, these changes about axes reflect that the population spatial distribution appears even stronger centripetal polarization trend and concentric concentration trend. In conclusion, it shows that Beijing is still in the population increment orientation urbanization process. Moreover, the relatively stable population gravity center and standard deviation ellipse show that Beijing is coming to the advanced process of the increment orientation urbanization while the quality orientation urbanization is becoming the main challenge in future Beijing.