中国能源和碳排放的效率测度与影响因素研究

Study on the Measurement and Influential Factors of Chinese Energy and Carbon Emission Efficiencies

采用DEA方法测度中国1995～2011年间能源和碳排放效率,并拓展STIRPAT模型,通过Tobit回归分析中国能源和碳排放效率的影响因素。研究表明：整体上中国能源和碳排放效率呈下降趋势,东部能源和碳排放效率最高,中部其次,西部最低。经济增长和节能技术是影响能源和碳排放效率的关键因素,其中经济增长会降低中国能源和碳排放效率。工业化水平对能源和碳排放效率的影响存在区域差异,不过统计上不显著。人口规模与能源和碳排放效率负相关。

Using DEA method,the paper measures Chinese energy and carbon emission efficiencies from 1995 to 2011. Extending STIRPAT model and applying Tobit regression,it analyzes influential factors of Chinese energy and carbon emission efficiencies. It indicates that,on the whole,Chinese energy and carbon emission efficiencies have a declining tendency.Energy and carbon emission efficiencies are the highest in the eastern region,followed by the central and western regions.Economic growth and energy-saving technology are the key factors that affect energy and carbon emission efficiencies. Economic growth will reduce energy and carbon emission efficiencies. There are regional differences in the effects of industrialization level on energy and carbon emission efficiencies,which is not significant statistically. There is a negative correlation between population size and energy and carbon emission efficiencies.