朝鲜“弃核”的关键变量辨析——层次分析法的局限与超越

The Key Variables to Denuclearization of North Korea——Limitation and Transcendence of AHP

准确把握影响朝鲜"弃核"的关键变量,是有效解决朝核危机的重要前提。对影响朝鲜"弃核"主要因素的分析,可采用层次分析法在国际和国内两个层面展开。受传统国际关系研究方法的束缚,已有研究主要关注国际系统层次变量的分析,而缺乏对朝鲜国内系统层次变量的分析。由东北亚地缘政治格局和朝鲜特殊政治生态等因素所决定,朝鲜"弃核"的关键因素源于其国内层次变量。其高度集权的领袖体制,使最高决策者对"弃核"具有决定性的影响力。引入国际政治心理学的分析范式可以进一步发现,朝鲜最高领导人的个性特征、心理认知模式和行为逻辑,决定了朝鲜在短期内难以改变其既有的核战略。中、美、俄、韩等国只有克服在朝核问题上的合作困境,通过新的政策组合,使朝鲜决策者形成拥核将最终危害其根本利益的正确认知,朝鲜弃核才能成为现实。

The exact comprehension of the variable key to denuclearization of North Korea is the important premise of an effective solution to North Korea＇ s nuclear crisis. The analytic hierarchy process （AHP） can analyze the main factors in North Korea＇ s denuclearization from both international and domestic levels. Limited by traditional research methods of international relationship, the existing researches focus on analysis to variable hierarchy factors in international system without attention to North Korea＇ s domestic system. Due to geopolitical layout in Northeast Asia and North Korea＇ s particular political ecosystem, the key to denuclearization lays on domestic level. North Korea＇s highly-centralized state power in its leadership system enables the top decision-maker to make a conclusive influence on denuclearization. Furthermore, analyzed by normal form of international political psychology, the characteristics, psycho-cognitive pattern and logical behavior of North Korean top decision-maker does not allow North Korea to change current nuclear strategy in the short run. To realize North Korea＇ s denuclearization, China, United States, Russia and South Korea must overcome difficulty, co-operate and thus form new policies to make North Korea＇ s top decision-maker understand that nuclearization will do harm to his nation＇ s fundamental interests. Only in that way can North Korea＇ s denuclearization be turned into reality.