我国蔬菜价格垂直传导的非对称性研究——基于面板VAR模型的实证

On the Asymmetric Effect of Vertical Transmission of Vegetable Prices in China——An Empirical Study Based on PVAR Model

运用面板向量自回归模型(PVAR)对我国蔬菜的生产价格、批发价格和零售价格的垂直传导机制进行实证研究,结果表明我国蔬菜三种价格的波动幅度和增长速度自上而下呈依次增强的特征;价格的正向传导顺畅,逆向传导存在一到两期的滞后,传导强度上存在正向传递强度明显高于逆向传递的非对称现象;生产价格在整个价格波动的传导链中占主导地位,蔬菜价格的稳定在很大程度上依赖于蔬菜的生产环节。

Based on PVAR,this paper analyzes the vertical transmission mechanism of the production price,wholesale price and retail price of five major vegetables in China.The results have the following indications：fluctuation range and growth rate of the three prices of major vegetables strengthen sequentially;the forward transmission of vegetable prices is smooth,while the reverse transmission lags for one or two periods;transmission strength is also nonsymmetrical,forward transmission strength being obviously higher than reverse transmission strength.Vegetable production price dominates the price transmission link.The stability of vegetable price depends to a larger extent on the production of vegetables.