美国南海政策新动向及其政策两难

Recent Trends of America 's Involvement in South China Sea Dispute and Policy Dilemma

近年来,美国对南海争端的介入日渐强烈和明晰,手段更加多样,成为制约中国南海维权的重要变量。不过,美国对南海争端的介入也面临政策抉择困境,对华关系两面性导致"尺度"困境、意愿与能力失衡导致"实效"困境、与相关国家难以铁板一块导致"角色"困境。未来,美国会继续干预南海争端、深入推进"亚太再平衡"战略,且日益重视"软介入"方式,但其政策抉择困境也为中美合作磋商提供可能。

In recent years,America's involvement in South China Sea dispute has become more obvious and assertive,disrupting China 's efforts to protect its own rights.Nevertheless, the United States also encounters policy dilemmas in this process,having to take the following issues into consideration: Sino-US relationship, the imbalance between intent and capacity,and the gap between the US and other claimants. In the future,the US may continue to interfere with the dispute under the banner of re-balancing strategy,particularly focusing on rules and regulations.However,the policy dilemma it faces also implies the space for Sino-US cooperation and consultation.