黑龙江省近50年降水变化趋势及空间分布特征

Variation trend and spatial distribution characteristics of precipitation in recent 50 years in Heilongjiang Province

依据黑龙江省呼玛、孙吴、齐齐哈尔、富锦、安达、哈尔滨、鸡西和牡丹江8个气象站1960—2012年的降水资料,运用线性回归、Mann-Kendall秩相关检验法和GIS空间插值等方法,分析该区近50多年来降水变化趋势和空间分布特征。结果表明:1)黑龙江省年代际降水表现为2降1升或2升1降30 a左右的周期,且从2012年开始转为多水期;2)除齐齐哈尔、呼玛站和安达站外,多年平均降水量在500 mm以上,降水集中在夏季,约占全年的64%,所有站点多年平均月降水量均呈现单峰曲线变化;3)仅孙吴和鸡西站年降水量呈显著减少趋势;4)多年降水空间分布以孙吴站和牡丹江为中心向周围递减,春季空间分布与多年降水空间分布较为一致;5)黑龙江省南部和北部年降水量均发生2次突变,分别为20世纪80年代初中期和21世纪初期,东、西部不存在明显的突变。研究结果可为该区的降水研究、水资源配置和生产实践等提供参考。

Based on the collected precipitation data from 1960 to 2012 at eight typical meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province,namely Huma,Sunwu,Qiqihar,Fujin,Anda,Harbin,Jixi and Mudanjiang stations,the variation trend and spatial distribution characteristics of precipitation in recent50 years in Heilongjiang province were analyzed by using the methods of linear regression,Mann-Kendall technique and spatial interpolation. The results demonstrated that： 1） The decadal variation pattern of precipitation followed ＂two down and one up＂or ＂two up and one down＂at a 30-year cycle and it turned into the rain-rich period from 2012. 2） The average annual precipitation was above 500 mm except for Qiqihar,Huma and Anda stations. Precipitation occured mainly in summer time,which accounted for about 64% of the annual precipitation,and changes in monthly precipitation for many years for all stations showed a single-peaked curve. 3） The inter-annual variation of precipitation at Sunwu and Jixi stations showed a slightly decreasing trend. 4） The spatial distribution of precipitation for many years showed a pattern of decreasing from Sunwu and Mudanjiang stations as the center to surrounding regions,and that in spring time was rather consistent with that for many years. 5） There were two abrupt changes of annual precipitation in the mid 1980 s and early 2000 s in northern and southern Heilongjiang Provincewhile no obvious changes occurred in eastern and western parts. Our analysis of the variation of precipitation and spatial distribution in Heilongjiang Province in the recent 50 years may provide useful guidance for the research work,water resources allocation and the production practice in the area.