智能配用电多业务汇聚的通信带宽预测

Communication Bandwidth Prediction of Aggregation of Multi-Services for Smart Power Distribution and Utilization

针对智能配用电业务增多带来的业务断面通信带宽预测复杂性问题,提出一种基于混合业务排队论模型的汇聚节点业务断面通信带宽预测方法。首先分析了智能配用电4类业务的通信服务质量要求及其业务汇聚流特性;其次分别通过业务服务质量指标的排队论参数映射和4类业务汇聚流的排队论到达速率计算,构建了混合业务汇聚流排队论带宽预测模型;最后在带宽预测模型基础上,提出了变电站汇聚节点业务断面的混合业务排队论最优传输效率带宽预测计算方法。以湖南省电力公司通信网"十二五"规划使用算例为实验数据,分析了所提方法预测带宽和业务服务质量(延迟和丢失率)指标的定量关系,通过与弹性系数带宽预测方法进行对比分析,验证了所提方法的有效性。

In allusion to the complexity in the communication bandwidth prediction at service-section caused by the increase of smart distribution and utilization business, a mixed-service queuing theory model based communication bandwidth prediction method for aggregation node at service section is proposed. Firstly, the demand on quality of service （QoS） of communication of the four kinds of services in smart power distribution and utilization as well as the features of its service aggregation flow are analyzed; secondly, through the parameter mapping of queuing theory based QoS indices and the calculation of the queuing theory based arrival rate of the four kinds of service aggregation flow, a bandwidth prediction model for queuing theory based mixed-service aggregation flow is constructed; finally, on the basis of the bandwidth prediction model, a prediction and calculation method of queuing theory based bandwidth with optimal transmission efficiency for substation＇s aggregation node at the service section is put forward. Taking the data of the calculation examples used in the Twelve Five-year Development Program for communication network of Hunan provincial electric power corporation as experimental data, the quantitative relation between the predicted bandwidth and the QoS indices, namely the time delay and the loss rate, is analyzed, and through the contrastive analysis on the results obtained by elastic coefficient based bandwidth prediction method the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated.