求和自回归移动平均模型在武汉市手足口病疫情预测预警中的应用

Application of ARIMA model on forecasting HFMD in Wuhan City

目的探讨自回归移动平均模型在手足口病预测预警中的应用。方法利用武汉市2009-2013年手足口病月发病率数据,拟合ARIMA模型,对武汉市2014年1～8月各月发病率进行预测。结果 ARIMA（1,0,0）×（1,1,0）12能很好的拟合武汉市手足口病发病情况,模型预测结果基本符合实际发病变动趋势。结论 ARIMA模型可用于模拟手足口病发病在时间序列上的变化趋势,进行预测预警。

Objective To explore the application of auto regressive integrated moving average（ ARIMA） on forecasting hand-footmouth disease（ HFMD）. Methods ARIMA model was fitted with the monthly incidence rate of HFMD from 2009- 2013,and the monthly incidence rate from January to August,2014 for HFMD was predicted. Results The model of ARIMA（ 1,0,0） ×（ 1,1,0）12fitted well with the incidence series in the past period of time,and the results were basically similar to the actual incidence.Conclusion ARIMA model can be used to fit the trends,and make forecasts of HFMD on time series.