煤与瓦斯突出危险性指标敏感性分析

Sensitivity Analysis of Risk Indexes for Coal and Gas Outburst

为了确定煤与瓦斯突出敏感指标,总结归纳了突出敏感指标的研究概况,分析了当前所存在的问题,并以羊渠河矿为例,通过对现场资料的归纳分析以及长时间的追踪调研,采用"三率"法与灰色关联法对工作面突出危险性敏感指标进行了合理分析。研究表明:"三率"法与灰色关联法能够有效确定煤与瓦斯突出敏感指标。"三率"法简洁,易于理解,但存在一定缺点;灰色关联法能更符合客观实际,弥补"三率"法的不足。两种方法联合确定的敏感指标能够提高煤与瓦斯突出预测的准确率。

To determine the sensitivity indexes of coal and gas outburst,the general research situation of the sensitivity indexes for coal and gas outburst was summed up,and the problems existing in it were analyzed in the current. Taking the Yangquhe Coal Mine as an example,through the inductive analysis of field data and follow-up research in a long time,the risk sensitivity indexes for gas outburst were reasonably analyzed by the ＂ three rates＂ method and the grey correlation method. Research results show that ＂ three rates＂ and the grey correlation method can effectively determine the sensitivity indexes of coal and gas outburst. The ＂ three rates＂ method is concise and easy to understand,but there are some shortcomings. The grey correlation method can be more in line with the objective reality,make up for the shortage of the ＂ three rates＂ method. Combined the two methods to determine the sensitivity of indexes can enhance the accuracy in prediction of coal and gas outburst.