基于EFDC模型的长江下游码头溢油风险预测

Risk prediction on wharf oil spill in the lower reaches of Yangtze River based on EFDC

为了更有效地预测溢油事故,建立了基于EFDC(environmental fluid dynamlics code)模型的长江下游南京段码头溢油事故影响的预测模型。研究结果表明:构建的二维水动力模型能够较为准确地反映研究区域风场、流场、复杂地形条件综合影响下长江溢油扩展和迁移运动的整体规律,油膜在研究区域降解较慢,溢油发生在落急时刻和西风风向时,油膜更早向下游扩散,对下游保护区的污染更严重。

In order to predict more effectively the oil spill accident,a model to predict the influence of wharf oil spill accident of Nanjing section in the lower reaches of Yangtze River was set up based on EFDC（ environmental fluid dynamics code）. The study results show that the two dimensional hydrodynamic model set up can more accurately reflect the overall rules of the spilled oil spreading and migration in Yangtze River under the comprehensive effects of wind field,flow field,complex terrain conditions of the study area,and the degradation of oil slicks in the study area is slow,and when the oil spill occurred in the ebb time and in the westerly wind,oil slicks diffuse to the downstream more early,resulting in a more serious pollution on the downstream protection zone.