基于自适应单指数平滑法的矿井防尘用水量预测

Forecast of Dust-proofing Water Consumption in Mine Based on Adaptive Single-exponent Smoothing Model

煤矿井下防尘用水量是矿井防尘供水管网优化设计和可靠性评价的基础参数,分析实测防尘用水量,发现用水量周期性变化规律,进而预测下一周期的防尘用水量,对于矿井防尘供水水源规划、供水优化调度、供水系统改造、评价供水管网系统可靠性具有重要意义。为实现矿井防尘用水量的准确预测,建立了自动调整平滑参数的单指数平滑法预测模型,并以开滦集团钱家营煤矿防尘用水量实测数据为例,验证了应用模型进行矿井防尘用水量预测的有效性。

Dust-proofingwater consumption was a basic parameter for optimal design and hydraulic reliability analysis of water supply network in coal mine, the forecast of dust-proofing water consumption calculated by water consumption measured and the periodical regular of consumption found was significant for programming of water source, dispatcher of water supply, reconstruction of water supply system and assessment of system reliability. To accurately forecast the dust-proofing water consumption, an adaptive single-exponent smoothing model was established, in the case of water consumption measured in Oianiiaving Mine, Kailuan Grouo. validitv of this method was verified.