WOFOST模型对东北春麦区春小麦生长和产量的模拟效果

Simulation and Verification of Growth and Yield of Spring Wheat in Northeast Region Based on WOFOST Model

为了解WOFOST模型在东北春麦区的适用性,利用哈尔滨、绥化、嫩江、呼玛、牙克石等地春小麦生长监测点收集到的数据,对WOFOST模型进行了本地化参数校正,建立相应的模型运行数据库,并对各个监测点2010-2013年春小麦生长发育情况进行了模拟分析。结果表明,运用校正过的WOFOST模型对各监测点春小麦各生育时期需要的天数、地上部鲜重、经济产量、干物质积累模拟的效果较好,R2分别为0.968、0.904-0.974、0.911-0.944、0.853-0.931,均在可信区间,说明经过校正的WOFOST模型在东北春麦区的生产中具有一定的适用性。

This study aimed to test the feasibility of WOFOST model for simulating the growth of spring wheat in northeast.Monitoring stations were set up in Harbin,Suihua,Nenjiang,Huma and Yakeshi area to establish a comprehensive monitoring network with certain coverage and representative.Using the data collected in those stations,the localized parameters were calibrated to WOFOST model.A corresponding model running database was set up to model the growth of spring wheat in2012 and 2013,to understand WOFOST model＇s applicability for spring wheat in the northeast region.The results showed that the model had good simulation effect using the corrected WOFOST model on the number of days required by spring wheat growth,fresh shoot weight of spring wheat,economic yield of spring wheat and dry matter accumulation quantity,with the R2 values of 0.968,0.904-0.974,0.911-0.944 and 0.853-0.931,respectively.It proved that corrected WOFOST model had certain applicability in spring wheat production in northeast area.