城镇化建设与投融资的动态关系研究——基于贵州省的实证分析

Study on Dynamic Relationship of Urbanization,Financing and Investment—an Empirical Analysis of Guizhou Province

论文采用协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、VAR模型、广义脉冲响应函数以及方差分解等模型和方法,实证分析贵州省城镇化建设与投融资之间的动态关系。实证结果表明:贵州省城镇化建设、融资与投资存在稳定的长期均衡关系;城镇化建设与融资、投资之间都存在双向的Granger因果关系,具有相互促进的作用;投融资会对城镇化建设产生显著的影响,城镇化建设对投融资会产生显著的影响;城镇化建设与投融资之间的动态冲击一般在第2期达到最大或最小,持续时间一般在6期或7期。

The study on dynamic relationship of urbanization,financing and investment in Guizhou Province helps to promote urbanization,and to improve the level of urbanization in Guizhou Province. In this paper,Co-integration test,Granger causality test,VAR model,the generalized impulse response functions and variance decomposition are used to empirically analyze dynamic relationships of urbanization,financing and investment in Guizhou Province.The empirical results show that,there is a stable long-run equilibrium relationship of urbanization,financing and investment. There are bidirectional Granger causality between urbanization and financing,between urbanization and investment,and between financing and investment,with mutually reinforcing effects. Financing and investment have significant impacts on urbanization,and also urbanization has significant impact on financing and investment. Dynamic impact of urbanization,financing and investment in general reaches the maximum or minimum in the second period and the duration is generally six or seven period.