基于DEA-Tobit模型的新疆物流效率及其影响因素研究

An Empirical Study on the Logistics Efficiency of Xinjiang and Its Influencing Factors Based on the DEA Model and Tobit Regression Model

基于DEA模型对新疆2000年—2012年的物流效率进行分析,并运用Tobit回归模型对物流效率与各影响因素的相关性进行回归分析。实证结果表明:新疆整体物流效率较高,但纯技术效率偏低,规模报酬存在波动性;且与经济发展水平、市场化程度、区位优势、外贸水平和物流资源综合利用率存在正相关关系;其中,外贸水平和物流资源综合利用率对物流效率的影响程度最大,市场化程度对物流效率的影响程度最小且是制约新疆物流业发展水平提升的重要因素。最后根据实证结论,提出提升新疆物流效率的有效政策措施。

By using the DEA model,the paper analyzes the logistics efficiency of Xinjiang between 2000 and 2012,and then uses the Tobit regression model to evaluate the correlation between the logistics efficiency and various factors. The empirical result shows that the overall logistics efficiency of Xinjiang is high; but the pure technical efficiency is lower,the returns to scale is fluctuant; at the same time,the logistics efficiency is positively correlated with the level of economic development,the degree of market-oriented,location advantages,the level of foreign trade and the logistics resource utilization. In these five factors,logistics resource utilization and the level of foreign trade deeply influence the logistics efficiency and the degree of market-oriented weakly in flunk the logistics efficiency,and the degree of market-oriented is the important factor to restrict to enhance the development level of the logistics industry in Xinjiang. At last,according to the empirical conclusions,the paper puts forward the effective policies and measures to enhance the efficiency of logistics of Xinjiang.