1990—2012年广东省废水排放特征及其驱动因素——基于STIRPAT模型和脱钩指数的研究

Characteristics and Driving Factors of Wastewater Emissions in Guangdong Province from 1990 to 2012——A Study based on STIRPAT Model and Decoupling Index

利用广东省1990—2012年的废水排放总量及社会经济统计数据,通过STIRPAT随机模型和岭回归拟合对人口数量、富裕度、化学需氧量(COD)排放强度与废水排放总量的关系进行了分析,并采用脱钩指数分析了GDP与废水排放总量之间的关系。结果表明,人口数量是广东省废水排放总量变化的主要影响因素;人口数量、人均GDP和COD排放强度每变化1%,广东省废水排放总量相应变化0.648 1%、0.169 1%、0.099 4%。观测数据范围内,废水排放量与人均GDP数据未出现环境库兹涅茨曲线的特征。研究期间广东省GDP与废水排放总量之间处于相对脱钩与复钩的波动状态,近年二者整体上处于阶段性的弱脱钩状态。广东省工业废水排放量正逐步得到控制,全省的废水排放量总体上将持续上升。

Based on wastewater emission and socio-economic statistical data in Guangdong province from1990 to 2012,the relationships among population,affluence,COD emissions intensity with wastewater emission were studied by ridge regression and STIRPAT model.The decoupling index was adopted to further analyze the relationship between GDP and wastewater emission.The results revealed that population was the major factor affecting wastewater emission in Guangdong.1% change in population,per capita GDP and COD emissions intensity would result in 0.648 1%,0.169 1%and 0.099 4%change in wastewater emission,respectively.The overall findings did not support the environment Kuznets curve hypothesis.The decoupling index was fluctuating,either in the state of relative decoupling or in re-coupling.In recent years,GDP and wastewater emission were at the stage of weak decoupling state overall.Industrial wastewater emissions were gradually under control,but owing to the rapid growth of domestic wastewater,the wastewater emissions would continue to rise in Guangdong province.