基于层次分析法的页岩气产业风险评价探讨

Discussion on Risk Evaluation of Shale Gas Industry Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

中国页岩气产业发展存在着诸多影响因素和风险问题,页岩气赋存地质条件复杂、储量评价体系不完善、勘探开发核心技术不成熟、巨额投资风险大、经济效益不乐观、配套设备落后、基础设施不健全、生态环保压力严峻等诸多风险影响因素构成了页岩气产业发展的风险网络。在兼顾定性分析的科学性和定量分析的准确性的基础上,利用层次分析法对页岩气产业风险评价体系进行了深入的分析研究,构建了页岩气产业发展风险评价的层次结构数学模型,并结合风险评价指标权重分配,对中国页岩气产业发展风险因素进行了系统评估,为推进页岩气产业健康发展提出风险应对措施。

Many influence factors and risks exist in the development of shale gas industry in China,including the complicated geologic conditions of the shale gas occurrence,imperfect evaluation system for shale gas reserves,immature key technology for exploration and development of shale gas,huge investment risks,poor economic benefits,backward equipment,imperfect infrastructures and severe ecological and environmental protection pressure,all of these constitute a risk network affecting the development of the shale gas industry. Based on both the science of qualitative analysis and the accuracy of quantitative analysis,deep analysis and study were made on the risk evaluation system of the shale gas industry by using the analytic hierarchy process,a mathematic model of hierarchicalstructure for risk evaluation of the shale gas industry was established,and systematical evaluation was carried out on the risk factors affecting China＇s shale gas industry development,this thus put forward the risk countermeasures for promoting the healthy development of the shale gas industry.