山东省农业旱灾恢复力评估研究:基于社会受灾体的脆弱性与恢复力的关系

Evaluation on the and resilience of the agriculture to natural disasters in Shandong province:based on the relationship between the vulnerability and resilience of the affected objects

山东省是我国农业旱灾的频发区,该地区的旱灾具有发生频率高、持续时间长、影响范围广的特点,严重影响了当地的农业生产和经济发展,在这种情况下,对该省农业灾害相关问题展开深入研究对于制定防灾减灾策略意义重大.根据山东省农业系统脆弱性与灾后恢复力的内在联系,提出了一个适合本地实际的旱灾恢复力评估模型,并以历史数据为依托进行了恢复力指数的尝试性构建.结果表明,＂气候＂、＂土地利用状况＂、＂农户收入＂和＂农业投入＂4个指标是影响研究区旱灾恢复力的关键因素,旱灾恢复力在1980年~2013这30多年间总体来看比较平稳,其中1983年、1987年、1994年、1998年和2002年恢复力水平较低,1984年、1990年、1996年和2005年恢复力水平较高.根据该模型构建的恢复力指数测算结果预测得出2014年山东省旱灾综合恢复力空间分布情况为青岛市最高,聊城市最低.

Shandong province is a drought-prone region in China,with the droughts of high frequency,lasting long and wide influence range,which have impacted the agricultural production and economic development.In this case,it is of great significance for us to evaluate the resilience of the agricultural system from drought in the province,since it can provide references for developing disaster mitigation strategies.This paper put forward a suitable model evaluating the resilience of agriculture to drought disaster on the basis of the intrinsic link of the vulnerability of the agricultural system with its resilience to drought,and then tried to build a resilience index by using historical data.The results show that：1）climate,land use status,farmersincome and input are the key factors influencing the regional resilience to drought;2）the resilience to drought in the period from 1980 to 2013has been relatively stable,but lower in 1983,1987,1994,1998 and 2002,and higher in 1984,1990,1996 and 2005.3）from the angle of space,the resilience will be highest in Qingdao and lowest in Liaocheng in 2014.