辽宁省粮食综合生产能力限制因素分析及生产潜力预测模型

Analysis on Factors Limited Comprehensive Grain Production Capacity in Liaoning Province and Models for Predicting Production Potential

分析辽宁省粮食生产能力限制因素,并对生产潜力做出预测,对保障粮食安全,促进经济社会和谐发展具有重要意义。本文以1979～2010年的数据,分析了影响粮食总产和单产的限制因子,对各因子进行线性相关分析,排序得出影响粮食产量的主、次和潜在因素,根据统计分析结果,结合辽宁省实际情况详尽分析了限制辽宁省粮食综合生产能力提升的主要症结,并分别对历史数据采用线性回归、主因子逐步回归、相关分析等方法,通过DPS软件,构建逐步回归预测模型、逻辑斯蒂预测模型、幂函数预测模型、Gauss模型预测模型、Cubics Ratio预测模型等模型对未来粮食单产和总产作出理论预测。

It is of great significance to analysis limited factors of grain production capacity and predict produc-tion potential in Liaoning Province in order to ensure food security and promote economic and social harmonious de-velopment. Based on data of 1979-2010, factors limited grain production and yield were analyzed in the paper.Meanwhile, linear correlations between these factors were analyzed, and main and minor or latent influencing factorsfound. According to the statistical results, a detailed analysis of the main problems limited the lift of comprehensivegrain production capacity was done combined with the actual situation in Liaoning Province. By using linear regres-sion, principal factor stepwise regression and correlation analysis to deal with the historical data, stepwise regressionprediction model, logic model, Christian the power function model, Gauss model, Cubics prediction model for Ratioprediction model in Dps software were established to predict the grain yield and total production in the future.