制度变迁、国际货币改革与中国的选择

A Study on Institutional Change,International Monetary Reform and China's Choice

文章认为国家经济价值的提高产生了对制度创新的需求,国际货币制度不均衡的关键原因是国家的经济价值。作为公共产品,由集体行动所供给的国际货币制度由于搭便车和外部性产生滞后效应。在陷入集体行动困境的现实国际货币体系中,由单个国家(中国)或自愿合作的国家集团(欧盟或亚洲货币区)所主导的诱致性的制度变迁是一种有效的边际改革,将会带来由美元主导的不稳定的国际货币体系变迁到多元的稳定的国家货币体系。由于中国的国家经济价值不断提升,国际货币制度的稳定需要人民币国际化。中国应该内外兼修,使人民币成为亚洲货币联盟的"锚"货币。

This paper argues that there is a new demand for system with the improvement of the national economic value,and the key reason for the imbalance of the international monetary system is the national economic value. As public goods,due to hitchhike and externalities,the international monetary system supplied by collective action has a lagging effect. The system is in the predicament of collective action,the institutional change dominated by a single country（ China）or cooperative group of countries（ EU or Asian currency area）is an effective marginal reform,it will make the unstable dollar—dominated international monetary system change to the stable multi—currency dominated system. Since the national economic value is rising,the internationalization of RMB is necessary for the stability of the international monetary system. So China should make the RMB become the“anchor”currency of Asia Monetary Union.