基于时间序列的山东省人均GDP分析与预测

The Analysis and Forecast of the Per Capita GDP in Shangdong Province Based on Time-Series

人均国内生产总值综合考虑了一个地区经济总量和人口基数,能够较好地反映一个地区经济增长和居民经济生活水平。本文以1978-2013年的山东省人均GDP数据为样本,用时间序列分析方法建立自回归预测模型。根据预测,山东省"十二五"期间人均GDP呈现出先慢后快的增长特点,可能原因是前期受金融危机影响较大,后期影响逐渐减弱。政府应保持宏观经济政策连续性稳定性,不断扩大开放,实施创新驱动,加快转方式调结构促升级,深化国民收入分配体制改革,实现经济持续健康发展和社会和谐稳定。

The per capita GDP considering the total economy and population base of a region,and it is an efficient tool to reflect a region’s economic development and living standards of residents. In this paper,we utilize time series analysis method to establish autoregressive model according to the per capita GDP index of Shandong Province from 1978 to 2013. According to the forecast,Shandong Province’s Per Capita GDP will grow from slow to fast during“the Twelfth Five—Year Plan”,the reason might be that the affects of financial crisis in the early period are more obvious than the affects in the later period. The government should maintain the continuity and stability of our macroeconomic policies;constantly expand opening up;drive development through innovation;accelerate transformation of the growth model,structural adjustments,and industrial upgrading;deepen reform of the income distribution system. Thus we will achieve the sustained and healthy economic development and social harmony and stability.