灰色马尔可夫模型的改进及农业受灾面积预测应用

The Improved Grey-Markov Model and Its Application in Forecasting the Agricultural Disaster Area of Jiangxi Province

针对传统的GM(1,1)模型对波动性较大的数据预测精度较低的问题,进行了2次改进并分别与马尔可夫链预测相结合建立了灰色马尔可夫模型.将各模型应用于江西农业受灾面积预测,结果表明,改进的灰色模型和灰色马尔可夫模型拟合精度较传统方法均有明显提高,验证了改进的灰色马尔可夫模型的有效性.

Considering that the traditional GM（ 1,1） model has lower prediction accuracy when the raw data sequence fluctuate severely,two improved grey model were proposed and then integrated with Markov predication model respectively. Two improved Grey-Markov models were established and applied to predict the agricultural disaster area in Jiangxi. The results show that the fitting precision of both improved grey model and Grey-Markov model are enhanced obviously,and it can be concluded that the methods of improved Grey-Markov model are effective.