GM(1,1)模型在铁路路基冻胀监测中的应用

Using GM(1,1) Model in Railway Subgrade Frost Heave Measurement

通过对季节性冻土区铁路路基冻胀量与地层温度的监测,可以了解监测段的冻胀变化过程,但无法对未来的发展趋势作出有效预测。本文采用GM(1,1)模型对监测段落路基的冻胀变形及冻结深度的变化情况进行预测。结果表明,此预测方法可以在现有监测数据的基础上有效预测短期内路基冻胀的发展趋势。根据模型预测结果,可以提前采取有效整治措施,便于决策者对轨道检验周期、维修周期、限速周期等作出合理调整。

Based on seasonal frozen railway subgrade frost heave and underground temperature measurement, the frost heave change process of this measured subgrade can be understood, but it can＇t make effective forecast of the future development trend.In this paper, GM（1,1） model was used to predict the change tendency of frozen depth and frost heave of the measured subgrade. Results indicated that using the existing measurement date, the future frost heave and frozen depth in short term can be effectively predicted. According to the predicted result, reasonable and effective adjustment can be made for the period of inspection, maintenance and speed limit.