江苏省经济增长与产业结构关系研究——基于向量自回归模型

Research on the Relationship between Industrial Structure and Economic Growth in Jiangsu Province——Based on Vector Auto-regression Model

使用1952-2012年间江苏省的经济数据,运用向量自回归模型、多重协整检验方法、误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解对江苏经济发展进行实证分析。结果表明：江苏省产业结构变迁与实经济增长之间不存在破坏均衡的内在机制,即具有长期均衡关系,产值结构的冲击对经济增长存在一种负向纠正的均衡机制,因此,推进产业结构升级对江苏经济的持续快速发展有重要意义。

Used the economic data of Jiangsu province from 1952 to 2012,the vector auto-regression,multiply co-integration test,vector error correction model,impulse response function and variance decomposition were applied to analyze the economic growth of Jiangsu province. The results showed that there was not internal mechanism that destroyed the balance between the change of industrial structure and economic growth,which had a long-term equilibrium relationship. The impact of the production value structure on economic growth had the negative correction equilibrium mechanism. As a result,there was the great significance to promote upgrading of the industrial structure for the sustainable and rapid development of economy in Jiangsu province.