鄂尔多斯盆地天然气储量和产量预测分析

Natural Gas Reserves and Production Prediction of Ordos Basin

鄂尔多斯盆地的天然气地质储量发现和产量增长的过程具有一定的多峰特征,通过分析盆地天然气资源禀赋、天然气储量和产量的增长历史,并在考虑天然气储量、产量预测影响因素的基础上,选用多峰高斯模型对鄂尔多斯盆地天然气储量、产量进行预测,开展天然气供应能力评价和潜力分析。预测结果表明:鄂尔多斯盆地天然气年探明地质储量在未来20年内总体上呈现先快速上升后缓慢下降趋势,累计探明天然气地质储量约为13×1012 m3;天然气产量在未来20年内呈现快速增长趋势,年均产量约为1 640×108 m3。未来20年鄂尔多斯盆地天然气产量将占全国天然气总产量的20%以上,随着非常规天然气资源的成功勘探与开发,鄂尔多斯盆地对我国油气资源的供应能力将逐步增大。在相当长的时间内,鄂尔多斯盆地的天然气勘探开发将具有广阔的前景。

According to the analyses of natural gas resource endowments and exploration and development history of Ordos Basin,multi-cyclic Gauss model was used to predict the tendency of natural gas reserves and production growth of Ordos Basin,on that basis,its supply capability and potential of natural gas were evaluated.The results show that the annual proven gas reserves of Ordos Basin will increase rapidly at first and then decrease slowly as a whole,and the accumulated proven reserves will be about 13×10^12 m^3.The gas production will rise in the next 20 years,and the annual average gas production will be 1 640×10^8 m^3.With the success of exploration and development of unconventional natural gas in Ordos Basin,its natural gas supply capability will increase year by year,and the gas production of the basin will account for more than 20%of the national total from the year 2010 to 2030.The foreground of natural gas exploration and development of Ordos basin will be very vast in a considerable long time.