南通市通州区细菌性痢疾发病季节性分析和趋势预测

Seasonal analysis and trend prediction on bacillary dysentery in Tongzhou District of Nantong City

[目的]研究江苏省南通市通州区细菌性痢疾发病季节特征,预测发病趋势,为科学防治提供依据。[方法]采用集中度、圆形分布统计方法,对通州区2006—2013年细菌性痢疾发病情况进行季节性分析,并运用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测发病趋势。[结果]通州区细菌性痢疾发病有一定的季节性,发病高峰为4月中旬至10月中旬。根据发病趋势预测方程,2014和2015年预测发病率分别为3.53/10万和4.49/10万。[结论]若无较大规模的疫情暴发,2014和2015年通州区细菌性痢疾发病率可能会略有上升,应以流行季节为重点,落实综合预防控制措施。

[Objective] To study the characteristics of seasonal distribution and explore the prevalence trends of bacillary dysentery in Tongzhou District of Nantong City,Jiangsu Province,and provide scientific basis for prevention and control strategy. [Methods] The concentration ratio and the circular distribution were used to analyze the seasonality of bacillary dysentery from 2006 to 2013 in Tongzhou District,and the prevalence trend was predicted with GM（ 1,1） grey model. [Results] The prevalence of bacillary dysentery was of certain seasonality,and the peak of the incidence was from mid-April to midOctober. According to the prediction model,the incidences predicted in 2014 and 2015 were 3. 53 /100,000 and 4. 49 /100,000. [Conclusion] If there was no large-scale epidemic outbreak,the incidence of bacillary dysentery would rise slightly in 2014 and 2015 in Tongzhou District. Comprehensive prevention and control measures should be undertaken focusing on epidemic seasons.