超限装备运输对铁路军用自备特种平车数量需求预测研究

Study on Quantity Prediction of Military Private Railway Wagons for Out-of-gauge Equipment Transportation

为保证超限装备铁路运输及时、准确、经济、安全地顺利实施,满足我军未来几年内超限装备铁路运输的需要,根据调研得到的过去10年超限装备运输量年度峰值,利用灰色灾变——线性回归预测模型对我军未来5年超限装备运输量年度峰值进行预测,以确定铁路军用特种平车的数量需求。

In order to ensure timely, accurate, economic and safe railway transportation of out - of - gauge equipment and meet our army＇ s requirements for the railway transportation of out - of - gauge equipment in next few years, based on re- search result about annual peak traffic amount of out - of - gauge equipment in the past 10 years, the paper uses grey catas- trophe - - linear regression prediction model to predict the annum peak traffic amount of out - of - gauge equipment in the next 5 years, to identify the required quantity of military private railway wagons.