基于灰关联法的城乡公交分担率影响因素分析

Analysis on the Impact of Urban and Rural Public Transport Share Rate Factors Based on Grey Relational Analysis

基于非集计理论的思路,利用灰关联分析方法确定公交出行的主要影响因素。该方法对数据的样本量需求小,可以分析出公交特征、个体出行特征和个体特性等因素的变化对公交出行行为的影响。最后采用苍南县城乡公交规划中的数据,通过此种方法得到主要影响因素,再通过SPSS对分组数据进行非线性回归分析,拟合出影响因素与公交分担率之间的函数关系。文章中使用的方法与结论可以为公交系统规划、方案评价、政府及相关部门决策提供参考和支持。

The forecasting on the bus-contribution rate is an important component of four-stage method in the prediction of bus demand,which has great impact on urban and rural public transport planning and integrated transport planning,as well as the development of China＇s urban and rural public transport in recent years. Based on the idea of the disaggregate theory,the gray relational analysis method was used to determine the main factors of bus travel. The method needs small sample size and can analyze the impact of the changes in the characteristics of the bus,individual travel characteristics,individual characteristics and other factors on bus travel behavior. The data of Cangnan urban and rural public transport planning was used to obtain the main factors by this method. Nonlinear regression analysis by SPSS was conducted on the data. The functional relationship between the rate of transit share and the major factors was established. The method proposed can provide information and support for decision-making in transit system planning,program evaluation of the relevant government departments.