物流园区物流量灰色马尔可夫预测模型

Forecasting the Logistics Volume of the Logistics Park Using the Grey-Markov Model

物流量是物流园区规划、建设和管理的一项重要统计数据。结合灰色理论和马尔可夫链的特点,建立灰色马尔可夫预测模型,对某物流园区的物流量进行预测。首先,根据历史统计数据建立灰色预测模型,并对模型进行精度检验。再根据灰色模型预测误差将系统划分为3个状态,确定马尔可夫状态转移矩阵,建立灰色马尔可夫预测模型,并预测物流园区的物流量。将预测结果与灰色模型对比,结果表明,建立的灰色马尔可夫预测模型可用于物流园区物流量预测,且其预测精度较高。

Logistics volume is an important statistical data for planning,construction and management of the logistics park.Grey-markov prediction model was built according to the characteristics of grey theory and markov chain and the logistics volume of some logistics parks was predicted. Firstly,the grey prediction model was established based on historical statistical data and the accuracy of the model was tested. Secondly,the system was divided into three states according to prediction error of the gray model and then state transition matrix of markov was determined. Finally,the grey-markov prediction model was established and the logistics volume of some logistics parks was predicted. Besides,the result of grey-markov model was combined with the result of grey model. The result showed that grey-markov prediction model could be used to predict logistics amount of logistics parks and the prediction accuracy was higher.