春季松毛虫种群数量及其发生面积预测研究

Forecast model of population dynamics and occurrence acreage of the pine moth Dendrolimus spp.in spring

为了监测春季松毛虫种群动态变化及进行综合防治,利用1986-2012年阜新县松毛虫上树期死亡率、发生面积及同期的气象数据,采用相关及逐步回归的方法分析了松毛虫发生程度和发生面积与同期气象因素间的关系。结果表明:松毛虫在阜新地区有春季和秋季两个发生期,以春季发生较重,发生时间为3月下旬到6月上旬。上树前2月下旬温度和相对湿度对其复苏有很大影响,上树过程中温度是影响上树死亡的主要因子,其次是风速和相对湿度。在综合考虑多种气象因子、越冬死亡率、上树期死亡率和前一年发生面积等多种因素的情况下,最终确定以5种主要气象因子、越冬死亡率和前一年发生面积为预报因子建立发生面积预报模型,模型拟合结果和试报准确率均较好。

For the purpose of monitoring the population dynamics of the pine moth Dendrolimus spp.and integrated pest control in spring,the relationships between the mortality of the pine moth and the synchronous temperature,precipitation,wind speed,relative humidity,and sunshine hours of Fuxin County were analyzed from1986 to 2012.Correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis were adopted to develop forecast model of the harm scale and occurrence acreage of pine moth.The results showed that the period of damage for pine moth in Fuxin is in spring and autumn.The serious damage occurred from late March to early June in spring.Temperature and relative humidity of late February significantly influenced pest recovery rate.Temperature was the dominant factor for the mortality of pine moth.Wind speed and relative humidity were the other two major factors.Through comprehensive evaluation of different meteorological factors,overwintering mortality,mortality in spring and occurrence area in the previous year,it was determined that the overwintering mortality,occurrence acreage of the previous year and five different meteorological factors were adopted as forecast factors to develop the predictive model.Occurrence acreage attacked by pine moth could be preferably simulated and predicted by these models.