水电系统中长期水文预报方法研究

Research on Mid-Long Term Hydrological Forecasting Method in Hydroelectric Systems

水库径流预测一直是水文水资源研究领域最重要的问题之一,本文将自回归预报方法应用于水库中长期径流预报当中,建立水文预报模型。实验表明,自回归预测在径流预报中有较好的实用性和广泛的应用前景。

he runoff prediction has been one of the most important topics in hydrological research. In order to improve water management efficiency of hydro system, the autoregressive method is applied to the long-term runoff forecasting and the runoff forecasting model. Finally, some actual results for mid and long term water inflow forecasting are obtained which show the proposed method of a good precision for forecasting.