黄淮海平原农业面源污染与农业产出增长——基于1978-2012年面板数据的实证研究

Empirical Researches on Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution and the Growth of Agricultural Output in North China Plain——Based on the Panel Data from 1978 to 2012

以黄淮海平原的农业面源污染与农业产出增长为研究对象,运用单元调查法测算七个省市的过剩氮和过剩磷排放水平,农业面源污染过剩氮和过剩磷主要来源于农业化肥使用量和畜牧业养殖。基于环境库兹涅茨理论,对农业面源污染与农业人均产出增长的1978—2012年的面板数据进行估计,实证结果显示:过剩氮和过剩磷与农业人均产出增长之间存在倒U型曲线关系,拐点分别为1.19万元和1.18万元,七省(市)目前的农业人均产出水平均在环境库兹涅茨曲线的拐点附近。政府应当重视农业生产对环境的破坏,从杜绝过量施用氮磷肥料、鼓励承包地流转和农技推广、对畜禽养殖粪便处理制定科学标准这三个方面着手推动农村环境综合整治。

The paper uses unit survey method to estimate the excess nitrogen and phosphorus emission and studies the relationship between agricultural non- point source pollution and the growth of agricultural output. Extensive use of chemical fertilizer and rural animal husbandry are the source of the excess nitrogen and phosphorus emission.Based on theory of environmental Kuznets,the panel data of agricultural non- point source pollution and the growth of agricultural output per capita from 1978 to 2012 are estimated,and the empirical results show that there is an inverted U- shaped curve relationship between agricultural non- point source pollution and the growth of agricultural output,and the inflexion points are 11,900 yuan and 11,800 yuan,which reflects that the current agricultural output per capita in these seven provinces and cities is near the inflexion point of environmental Kuznets curve,and the government should attach importance to the destruction of agricultural production to the environment,prohibit excessive use of chemical fertilizer,encourage contracted land circulation and the spread of agricultural techniques,set scientific standards of rural animal husbandry to improve the rural environment comprehensively.