产业结构升级、对外开放是否减弱了经济波动及其负面效应?

Can Industrial Structure Upgrading and Opening to the Outside Weaken the Economic Fluctuation and Its Negative Effects?

运用中国改革开放以来的地区面板数据,研究产业结构升级和对外开放对中国经济波动和经济增长的影响,同时检验了产业结构、对外开放度是否影响经济波动和经济增长的关系。实证研究发现,中国产业结构升级在减弱经济波动的同时促进了经济长期增长,而对外开放度的提高增加了经济波动,对经济增长表现为1996年以前影响不显著,1996年后有正效应。进一步看,改革开放以来中国经济波动对经济增长存在负向影响,但1996年之前和1996年之后影响不同,分别是正影响和负影响,此外产业结构升级和对外开放度的提高有助于减弱经济波动对经济增长的负面影响,并且当产业结构升级和对外开放度超过一定临界值后,这一影响转而为正。

The paper uses the provincial panel data since China＇s reform and opening up to the outside to study the influence of industrial structure upgrading and opening to the outside on economic fluctuation and economic growth. Meanwhile,whether industrial structure upgrading and the degree of opening to the outside may influence the relationship between economic fluctuation and growth is also tested. Empirical study shows that while weakening the economic fluctuation,the industrial structure upgrading of China improves economic growth. The improvement of opening to the outside promotes economic fluctuation and has positive effect on economic growth after1996. The influence is insignificant before 1996. Furthermore,there is a negative influence of economic fluctuation on economic growth which is different before and after 1996 with positive and negative impacts respectively. Besides,industrial structure upgrading and the degree of opening to the outside can help to reduce the negative influence of economic fluctuation on economic growth.The influence will even change from negative to positive when the level of industrial structure upgrading and openness to the outside exceed threshold value.