中国经济波动福利成本的分析——基于三种效用函数形式的视角

An Analysis on the Welfare Costs of Economic Fluctuation in China——Based on the Perspective of Three Utility Functions

利用中国1952~2012年全国、城镇以及农村居民实际人均消费数据,在三种不同的效用函数形式下,基于CF滤波得到的消费波动率对中国经济波动的福利成本进行了测算。研究结果表明：只要保证参数选取合理,即符合微观经济个体的理性行为,则无论采用何种形式的效用函数,对中国经济波动福利成本的定量分析均是有效的;利用CF滤波得到的消费波动率远小于传统的时间去趋和HP滤波等方法得到的消费波动率,更具稳健性,避免了传统方法可能会产生与事实相悖的问题;尽管中国经济波动的福利成本非常低,仅为0.1%,但却是美国福利成本的2.7倍,因此进一步降低中国福利损失的政府宏观调控政策仍然具有作用空间;经济波动对中国城镇居民造成的福利损失一般大于对农村居民造成的福利损失,这给政府政策制定和调整带来了一定的启示。

Under three different forms of utility functions,and by using per capita consumption data of national,urban and rural residents in China from 1952 to 2012,the authors get consumption volatility based on the CF filter to measure the welfare costs of the economic fluctuations in China. The results show that so long as the parameter selection is reasonable and consistent with the rational behavior of the microeconomic individuals,the quantitative analysis of the welfare costs of China＇s economic fluctuations are all effective no matter what form of the utility function is set. The consumption volatility by using CF filter is far less than the consumption volatility by using the traditional detrending method and HP filtering methods. The result is more stable and avoids the contradiction between traditional methods and the facts. Although the welfare costs of China＇s economic fluctuations is very low,which takes only 0. 1%,it is 2. 7 times of the costs in America. Therefore,the macro-regulation and control policy of further reducing the welfare loss is still effective. Finally,the welfare loss of urban residents caused by economic fluctuation is generally larger than that of the rural residents,which gives enlightenment to the policy-making and adjustment of the government.