公共安全财政支出理论分析及中国数据的检验

A Theoretical Analysis for the Fiscal Expenditure of Public Security and An Empirical Study Based on the Chinese Data

公共安全财政支出规模边界的科学确定,不仅关系到社会投入公共安全领域的财力保障程度,也将影响百姓安居乐业民生诉求的实现程度。笔者吸纳监管经济理论,构建了公共安全财政支出供求分析框架。通过中国样本数据检验证实:(1)以公共安全财政支出占总体财政支出比重指标考量,政府用于公共安全投入的财政承担能力尚未有明显变化;(2)社会稳定状况实证分析表明,中国入世以来的社会稳定形势值得警惕,公共安全财政支出的社会需求不断攀升;(3)通过Johansen协整检验证实,公共安全财政承担能力和社会稳定之间具备长期均衡关系。鉴于此,提出了公共安全财政支出边界确定及其动态调整的政策建议。

Scientifically to determine the boundary of the fiscal expenditure of public security is not only related to the financial guarantee on the public security,but also to affect how people live happily. In this paper,the economic theory of regulation is to be referred,and the analysis framework of the supply and demand of public security has been built. By use of Chinese data being confirmed：（ 1） the fiscal capacity of public security has not yet significantly changed.（ 2） Based on the social stability condition,the empirical analysis shows that the situation of social stability is not good and the social demand of public security continues to rise since China entered WTO.（ 3） by Johansen cointegration test results,the long-term equilibrium has been confirmed between the fiscal burden of public security and social stability. In view of these,we have proposed policies of the fiscal expenditure for public security.