摘要
通过对包虫病流行现状和传播机理的分析,利用动力学方法构建了一类包虫病传播的离散动力学模型.分析了影响疾病传播和控制的关键因素,得到了决定疾病传播与否的基本再生数,利用新疆2004—2012年包虫病人类季度数据对模型进行了数值模拟,对新疆包虫病作出中长期预测.最后分析了参数的敏感性,对各种不同的控制措施进行了比较.
By analyzing the epidemic status of echinococcosis and the mechanism of transmission, a discrete dynamics model of echinococcosis disease spreading by using dynamics models was built. The key factors that influence the spread and control of disease were analyzed. Then the model gets the basic reproductive number which disease spreads or not. The model was simulated by using quarterly data of patients with hydatid disease from 2004 to 2012, a long term prediction of hydatid disease in Xinjiang was made. Finally, it compares the sensitivity of the model parameters and different control measures.
出处
《北华大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2014年第4期427-432,共6页
Journal of Beihua University（Natural Science）
基金
新疆包虫病基础医学重点实验室开放课题(XJDX0202-2013-2)
国家自然科学基金项目(11201399)
新疆维吾尔自治区教育厅高校科研计划项目(XJEDU2012S20)
关键词
包虫病
基本再生数
离散动力学模型
数值模拟
echinococcosis disease
basic reproductive number
discrete dynamics model
numerical modeling
