我国商品房价格的时空动态特征——基于空间动态面板模型的实证研究

Empirical Research on Spatio-Temporal Dynamics and Influencing Factors of Commercial Housing Prices in China Based on A Dynamic Model of Spatial Panel Data

基于空间动态面板模型,利用2003-2012年我国商品房价格的省际面板数据,分析我国商品房价格的影响因素及时空动态特征。结果表明,土地价格、商品房供应量和城镇居民人均可支配收入是商品房价格的主要影响因素;我国商品房价格存在较强的时间上的动态惯性效应和空间上的区域关联特征,而且临近地区房价的相互影响程度高于不相邻地区间的房价影响程度,经济特征相似地区房价的相互影响程度高于经济特征不同地区的房价相互影响。

In this study, the Spatial Dynamic Panel Model is used to analyze influencing factors and spatio-temporal characteristics of China＇s commercial housing prices using provincial panel data from 2003 to 2012. The results demonstrate that land price, supply of commercial residential building and per capita disposable income of urban dwellers are key influencing factors to housing prices. Meanwhile, the housing prices have dynamic inertia effect in time and regional correlation characteristics in space, i.e. mutual influence of housing prices in neighboring areas or areas with similar economic features is higher than that in nonadjacent areas or areas with dissimilar economic features.