1901-2011年塔吉克斯坦极端气温变化特征

Characteristics of Extreme Temperature Change in Tajikistan in 1901-2011

利用塔吉克斯坦1901-2011年的逐月平均最高、最低气温资料,采用一元线性回归、Mann-Kendall突变检验法以及小波分析法,分析了塔吉克斯坦的年、季平均极端气温的变化趋势。结果表明,研究时段内塔吉克斯坦年平均最高气温、平均最低气温均呈增暖趋势,线性倾向率分别为0.07,0.15℃/10a,平均最低气温的增幅明显高于平均最高气温的增幅,最低气温的升温速率约为最高气温升温速率的2倍,气温升高受最低气温的影响更显著;塔吉克斯坦春、秋和冬季平均最高气温均呈上升趋势,线性倾向率分别为0.09,0.05,0.15℃/10a,夏季平均最高气温没有明显变化;而四季平均最低气温均呈上升趋势,春、夏、秋、冬季线性倾向率分别为0.15,0.08,0.14,0.19℃/10a;年平均最高气温在1994年发生了突变,存在27a的准变化周期,而年最低气温在研究时段没有突变,存在33a的准变化周期。

Based on the monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures data,mono-linear regression,Mann-Kendall mutation test and wavlet analysis method were applied to investigate the change trend of annual,seasonal mean maximum and minimum temperature in Tajikstan in 1901-2011.The result showed that both maximum and minimum temperatures were increased with rates of 0.07 ℃/10 a and0.15 ℃/10 afor the period.The amplification of the mean minimum temperature was signigicantly higher than that of mean maximum temperature.The temperature rise rate of minimum temperature was about two times higher than that of temperature rise rate of maximum temperature;The mean maximum temperature in spring,autumn and winter tended to decline;The linear trend rate was 0.09,0.05,0.15℃/10 a,respectively.The mean maximum temperature in summer had no significant change;However,the mean minimum temperature was increased in all seasons.The linear trend rate in spring,summer,autumn and winter was 0.15,0.08,0.14,0.19 ℃/10 a,respectively;There was mutation with mean annual maximum temperature in 1994.There mainly existed 27 afluctuation.However,there were no mutation in the mean minimum temperature,but mainly existed 33 afluctuation in 110-year scales.