交通碳税对我国碳排放、社会福利及税收收入的影响分析——基于TREMOVE模型

Analysis on the Impact of Transportation Carbon Taxes on CO_2 Emissions,Social Welfare and Tax Revenue in China——Based on TREMOVE Model

本文运用TREMOVE中国模型和中国国家数据,模拟新的车船税政策和碳税政策在我国的实施。模拟结果显示新的车船税和碳税的实施会使CO2排放量在2030年时下降1.19亿吨。同时如果公共交通对私人交通的替代弹性变大,公共交通更为便利或限制小汽车数量时,CO2排放量均会有更加可观的减少。两个税收政策的同时实行还会对社会福利和政府税收产生正向的影响,在双红利效应下,以环境税代替劳务税,会对社会福利的作用更加明显。

Using China Model of TREMOVE and China national data, this paper simulates the implementation of new vehicle and vessel tax and carbon tax. The simulation results show that the implementation of new vehicle and vessel tax and carbon tax will make CO2 emissions decline 119 million tones in 2030. While if substitution of public traffic for private traffic is more elastic or the number of cars is limited, the declination of CO2 emissions will be more prominent. The combined implementation of both tax policies will make a positive effect on social welfare and government tax revenue. Under the double dividend effect, the positive effect on social welfare will be more significant by replacing service tax with environmental tax.