政策调整对我国房价的冲击效应研究——基于小波多分辨率分析与干预分析模型

A Study on Impact Effects of Policy Adjustment on China Real Estate Price: Based on Wavelet Multi-resolution Analysis and Intervention Analysis Model

借鉴货币最优政策模型,从机理上分析了房地产市场的变动规律,发现推动房价正常上涨的本质在于成本推动以及人口迁移下对住房的刚性需求,其他政策虽然短期内可调节房价波动,但长期过度使用会导致房价不可逆转的畸形。进一步基于小波多分辨率分析与干预分析模型讨论了我国政策冲击下的房地产市场发现:房价波动短期内会影响房地产销售,但长期内房地产销售不受房价波动影响,房价上涨与销售额增长均具有自身内在的推动力;政策调整对房价调控的冲击出现逆效性,短期内可以抑制房价上涨,长期内则会造成房价的更大波动。

Based on the optimal monetary policy model, this paper firstly analyzes the optimal policy for the real estate in Chi- na from the mechanism and finds the normal rise of the real estate price is essentially driven by the cost and the rigid demand on the real estate due to the population migration ; in addition, it finds that other policies may affect the fluctuation of the real estate price in a short term, but it may result in the irreversible malformed real estate price due to the long-term and excessive implementation. Furthermore, based on the wavelet multi-resolution analysis and intervention analysis mode, this paper dis- cusses the real estate market with the impact from the policy and comes to the following conclusions ： the fluctuation of the real estate price will affect the sale of the real estate in a short term instead of a long-term, the rise of real estate price and the in- crease in sale volume have their own intrinsic driving force ; the policy adjustment is of inverse effect on the regulation against the real estate price, that is to say, it may control the rise of the real estate price in a short term, however, from a long-term perspective, it may form a greater bounce of rise instead of inhibition of the rise of the real estate price.